S. Manullang, H.D.M. Hutabarat, M. Panjaitan
This study aims to obtain an estimate of transition opportunities from the health status of elderly persons. The phenomenon of changes in health status in the elderly has a chance of transition at each shift in their health status. To obtain an accurate estimate of the transition probability in a multi-status model of health status is indispensable. We estimate the four-state multi-state models from alive/healthy through out-patient sickness, in-patient sickness to death with recovery from either of the two cases of sickness will be used based on medical data elderly. The focus will be on deriving the probabilities of transition from one state to another via the forces of intensities. We then provide a method for estimating unique transition probabilities for both males and females elderly, generally behaved as expected with transition probabilities to sickness states increasing with age. Transition probabilities out of the sick state appear higher for males than females. © Published under licence by IOP Publishing Ltd.
Department of Mathematics, State University of Medan, Indonesia
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