Muhammad Nasir
This study aims to determine the effect of Singapore's economy on exports of North Sumatera Province in Indonesia to Singapore and also to determine the impact of North Sumatra's economy to Singapore's rill investment in North Sumatra. Furthermore, this research explains the reciprocal relationship between the economy of North Sumatra to that of Singapore.This study uses data time series of 1990 - 2015.The testing tools and analysis used are descriptive statistical analyses, Ordinary Least Square (OLS), the unit root test, cointegration test, Vector Autoregression (VAR), impulse response function, granger causality test.The research results show that Singapore's economy has significant effect on North Sumatra's exports to Singapore and the coefficient is positive. This means that Singapore's economic growth will have impactson the increased North Sumatra's exports to Singapore. Likewise, North Sumatra's economy has significant effect on Singapore's real investment in North Sumatra and the coefficient is positive. This means that North Sumatra's economic growth will have impact on the increased Singapore's real investment in North Sumatra.The results granger analysis show that North Sumatra's economy, when included as a variable that predicts Singapore's economy,has significant impacts. This relationship is a one way causal relationship, also referred to as Unidirectional Causality from At to Bt. The results of the VAR analysis of Singapore's economy affected by North Sumatra's economy in lag - 1 is significant. The shock in North Sumatra's economy has caused Singapore's economy to rise at the beginning of the period, then decline in the middle of the period and slope down at the end of the period. Furthermore, a shock on Singapore's economy to North Sumatra's economy has caused North Sumatra's economy to decline in the early period and then rise in the middle of the next period and slope upwards at the end of the period. © Serials Publications Pvt. Ltd.
Faculty of Economy, Universitas Negeri Medan, Medan, Indonesia
